Tigray's war has restarted, and Mekelle has fallen.
Wars in this region have ended in agreements. The hard part has been keeping them.
What happened
Federal forces took Mekelle, Tigray's capital, on 4 October after fighting resumed in September. Ethiopia expelled Eritrean diplomats, and Eritrea cut all ties.
- Seven armed and political groups announced an alliance to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and fighting resumed. Meridian, 5 October 2026
- Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata. Dawan Africa
- Eritrea rejected the accusations and severed all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. Al Jazeera
- Federal forces took control of Mekelle as TPLF leaders and fighters withdrew. Africanews
Read the full account
On 23 September, seven armed and political groups in Ethiopia announced an alliance with a stated goal of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Fighting followed quickly. Around the town of Alamata, hospital sources told the BBC that at least 52 civilians were killed in three days; Médecins Sans Frontières reported more than 700 wounded admissions. By 4 October, federal forces and allied militia had taken the airport and center of Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) said it had “temporarily moved out” of the city.
Between 2020 and 2022, Ethiopia's federal government fought the TPLF in a war that killed hundreds of thousands of people. It ended with a peace agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022. That agreement has now collapsed. This is the largest fighting in Ethiopia since it ended.
The war has also pulled in a neighbor. On 1 October, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled ten Eritrean diplomats, accusing Eritrea of “direct and indirect acts of hostility,” including sending soldiers into the Afar region. Eritrea denied it and cut all diplomatic ties. Underneath this sits an older question: Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993, and Abiy has repeatedly spoken of Ethiopia's “right to sea access.”
Why it matters
Ethiopia is one of Africa's most populous countries. A new war there, with Eritrea drawn in, puts the whole Horn of Africa and the Red Sea coast on edge.
How we got here
- 1993Eritrea becomes independent. Ethiopia has been landlocked since. Abiy's talk of sea access is heard in Asmara as a claim on Assab.
- 2022The Pretoria agreement. That agreement has now collapsed.
Previous flights on this route
How similar situations went before
Situations like this one, what happened next, and where each one landed.
Drafted from the historical record. Awaiting human review.
1998The Ethiopia-Eritrea border warEthiopia and Eritrea
- ThenThe two countries fought a war over their border, and tens of thousands of soldiers died.
- NextThe Algiers Agreement ended the fighting in December 2000.
- Landed · Frozen, not foughtNearly twenty years of “no war, no peace” followed, with the border closed.
2018Peace with EritreaAbiy Ahmed and Eritrea
- ThenMonths after taking office, Abiy made peace with Eritrea.
- NextBorders reopened, flights resumed, and Abiy won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
- Landed · Lapsed within a yearMost border crossings closed again within a year.
2020The Tigray warEthiopia's government and the TPLF
- ThenA war between the federal government and the TPLF killed hundreds of thousands of people.
- NextThe African Union brought both sides to talks in Pretoria.
- Landed · Peace held almost three yearsAn agreement in November 2022 stopped the fighting for almost three years.
Usual flight path. Fighting, then a deal brokered by neighbors, then a long uneasy pause. The pauses have ended when nobody kept tending them.
How this flight is different
Where the comparison stops holding
- In 2020 Eritrea fought alongside the federal army. This time Ethiopia accuses it of hostility and of sending troops into Afar.
- Seven armed and political groups have joined forces, a wider alliance than in 2020.
- Ethiopia's talk of access to the sea turns a civil war into a question about a border and a port.
What to watch
- Any Eritrean military movement near the border or the port of Assab
- Whether the African Union, which brokered the 2022 deal, convenes
- Humanitarian access to Tigray
Where the exits are
Our sources, and how sure we are
Communications and access in Tigray are limited, so casualty figures are partial. Whether Eritrean troops are inside Ethiopia is disputed, and reports of drone strikes in Addis Ababa could not be verified.
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