Ebola has now killed more than 4,000 people in Congo. A treatment center was burned by soldiers.
Every Ebola outbreak so far has ended through tracing and isolation. Large ones take time.
What happened
Congo reports 8,300 confirmed cases and 4,018 deaths since May, the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. A transit center near Bunia was burned, and 19,000 people fled the surrounding camp.
- Congo's health ministry reported 4,018 deaths among 8,300 confirmed cases since 15 May. AP via Anchorage Daily News
- Soldiers burned a transit center at Kigonze, near Bunia, and 19,000 people fled the camp around it. Express & Star
- The WHO described declines in Ituri and North Kivu and renewed transmission in Tshopo. Meridian, 5 October 2026
Read the full account
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was declared on 15 May. As of 2 October, Congolese authorities report 8,300 confirmed cases and 4,018 deaths. In August, the death toll was 1,850. It is now described as the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record, and the second-largest ever, behind only the 2014 to 2016 West African epidemic.
This outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain, for which there is no approved vaccine and no specific treatment; clinical trials are under way. It has spread to seven of Congo's 26 provinces. Neighboring Uganda had cases earlier and has since declared its outbreak over.
This week, a treatment center at Kigonze, on the outskirts of Bunia in Ituri province, was burned by soldiers searching for weapons. About 19,000 people in the surrounding displacement camp fled. At least 50 health workers have died of the virus; in Bunia, health workers have protested unpaid wages for August and September.
“It is like fighting a wildfire,” said Stephanie Hoffman, an MSF coordinator in Butembo. “Multiple outbreaks are developing at the same time, with varying intensity and in different locations.”
Why it matters
With no vaccine for this strain, the only tools are finding contacts and isolating them. Both depend on trust and safety on the ground, and this week damaged both.
How we got here
- 2007Bundibugyo discovered. This is the strain spreading now, far less studied than the one the vaccines cover.
- 2014The West Africa epidemic. The only Ebola outbreak larger than this one.
- 2026The outbreak is declared. The death toll has more than doubled since August.
Previous flights on this route
How similar situations went before
Situations like this one, what happened next, and where each one landed.
Drafted from the historical record. Awaiting human review.
2014The West Africa epidemicGuinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone
- ThenAbout 28,600 cases and 11,300 deaths, much of it in cities with too few clinics.
- NextTreatment centers, contact tracing and safe burials slowly bent the curve through 2015.
- Landed · Over by 2016It was declared over in 2016.
2018The Kivu outbreakEastern Congo
- ThenAn outbreak in a conflict zone infected about 3,500 people and killed 2,287.
- NextVaccination and tracing went on, despite attacks on health workers.
- Landed · Over in two yearsIt was declared over in June 2020, almost two years later.
2022Uganda, without a vaccineUganda
- ThenAn outbreak of the Sudan species, which has no approved vaccine.
- NextHealth workers traced and isolated every contact, and two districts went into lockdown.
- Landed · Over in four monthsIt was declared over in January 2023, under four months after it began.
Usual flight path. Cases climb while the response catches up, then tracing and isolation close each chain of infection. Bigger outbreaks take longer, but all of them have ended.
How this flight is different
Where the comparison stops holding
- This is the Bundibugyo strain, with no approved vaccine or treatment, so the shots that helped end Kivu cannot be used.
- It is the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record and has reached seven of Congo's 26 provinces.
- The response itself is under strain: a transit center was burned this week, and health workers in Bunia have gone unpaid.
What to watch
- Whether the Kigonze center is rebuilt and its patients traced
- Whether health workers in Bunia are paid
- Mobile labs, which cut test turnaround from 72 hours to six, reaching new zones
Where the exits are
Our sources, and how sure we are
Confirmed counts come from Congo's health ministry. The WHO says many deaths happen in communities and are detected late, so the true toll is likely higher.
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