The polls said Lula. Brazil said: not yet.
When first-round polls miss, the runoff comes down to turnout and endorsements, and it is usually close.
What happened
Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in Brazil's presidential election with about 47% of valid votes. President Lula had about 45%. Neither reached 50%, so they meet in a runoff on 25 October.
- Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with about 47% of valid votes. Lula had about 45%. Outlook India
- With neither above 50%, the two meet in a runoff on 25 October. Revista Mercado
- The final Datafolha and Quaest polls had both put Lula ahead. Meridian, 5 October 2026
Read the full account
On Sunday, 4 October, Brazil held the first round of its presidential election. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first with roughly 47% of valid votes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, running for a fourth term, finished second with between 43.5% and 45%, depending on which near-final count you read; the electoral court still has to certify. Neither reached 50%, so the two will meet in a runoff on 25 October.
Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in 2022, was imprisoned in 2025 and is barred from running. He endorsed his son instead. Flávio's roughly 56 million votes are more than the 51 million his father received in the first round four years ago.
The final surveys did not see this coming. Datafolha had Lula ahead 45 to 42. Quaest had him ahead by five. Lula said on Sunday night: “I confess I was convinced I was going to win the election in the first round.” Abstention was around 21%, and analysts note that it historically falls hardest on lower-income voters, who lean toward Lula.
Why it matters
Brazil is Latin America's largest democracy. A runoff this close, after the polls missed, is a test of how both sides accept a result.
How we got here
- 2022Lula beats Jair Bolsonaro. The last time these two families met at the ballot box. It was the closest result since Brazil returned to democracy.
- 2023Brasília stormed. The losing side never formally conceded in 2022. That is why how this runoff ends matters as much as who wins.
- 2025Jair Bolsonaro imprisoned. It is why his son is on the ballot instead.
Previous flights on this route
How similar situations went before
Situations like this one, what happened next, and where each one landed.
Drafted from the historical record. Awaiting human review.
2022Brazil's last first roundLula and Jair Bolsonaro
- ThenPolls had Jair Bolsonaro well behind. He finished about five points back instead of more than ten.
- NextFour weeks of campaigning for the runoff, and a scramble for endorsements.
- Landed · Decided by two pointsLula won the runoff by less than two points, the closest result since Brazil returned to democracy.
2002France's surprise first roundJacques Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen
- ThenPolls expected Chirac against Lionel Jospin. Le Pen came second instead and reached the runoff.
- NextParties of the left and right asked their voters to back Chirac.
- Landed · The runoff settled itChirac won the runoff with 82% of the vote.
2016The US polls that missedAmerican pollsters
- ThenState polls underestimated Donald Trump in the Midwest.
- NextAn industry review found late deciders and too little weighting by education.
- Landed · Pollsters adjustedThe result stood, and pollsters changed how they weight their samples.
Usual flight path. A first round that surprises, three or four weeks of endorsements and turnout drives, then a close runoff whose result stands.
How this flight is different
Where the comparison stops holding
- The leading candidate is the former president's son. Jair Bolsonaro is in prison and barred from running.
- About 9% of voters chose other candidates, mostly on the right, so this week's endorsements matter more than usual.
- After the 2022 runoff the losing side never formally conceded, so how this one ends is part of the story.
What to watch
- Endorsements from the eliminated candidates, who took about 9% between them
- Whether turnout among lower-income voters rises in the runoff
- Whether either side questions the result
Where the exits are
Our sources, and how sure we are
The first-round count is near final but not yet certified. Runoff polls put the two inside each other's margin of error, and this week showed how far polls can be off.
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